The Psychology of Failed Predictions

Psychology plays a role in every decision that we make, to choosing a mate and starting a family, to the advertisements that persuade us in purchasing the latest electronics. But, what role does psychology play when it comes to our ability to predict world events or the latest emerging technologies? Is it possible that we are limited to certain psychological barriers that hinder our ability to reasonably survey and forecast future events? In a new study by Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI) describes ‘How We’re Predicting AI – or Failing To’ by Stuart Armstrong and Kaj Sotala. It shows that there is substantial evidence for suspicion when it comes to our ability to predict future events. According to the data in the study, it is possible that forecasters could struggle with subconscious psychological predispositions that hinder their ability generate successful forecast. This study was not limited to expert forecast, but also included the forecast of non-experts, and cites data that shows there is an indistinguishable difference between the predictions of expert and non-expert forecasters.

Figure 1: “Median estimate for human-level AI, graphed against date of prediction” (1).

One of the most common mistake that expert and non-expert forecasters make is the so-called Maes-Garreau Law formulated by Kevin Kelly that states, forecasters will predict that a certain event with happen within their life time. “In this case, the rise of AI that will save them from their own deaths, akin to a Rapture of the Nerds” (1), a second mistake that forecasters make is that ‘event X is within 20 years’.

Figure 2: “Difference between the predicted time to AI and the predictor’s life expectancy, graphed against the predictor’s age” (1).

In order to compile and execute more accurate forecast and predictions, it is important that we understand our psychological procedures that could obstruct our vision of the future. By doing so, it could allow us to peer into the future with unbiased eyes, and a fresh perspective of what is logically possible according to our data, and not blindly project our ego onto our scenarios and forecast.

SOURCE: (1) HTTP://INTELLIGENCE.ORG/FILES/PREDICTINGAI.PDF

What won't exist in the world by 2030? The end of an ideology

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Transportation is one of the 6 super trends that are projected to continue into the future. This super trend states that transportation will become more easily accessible into the future, and open up new layers of globalization. However, individuals such as Elon Musk from SpaceX are looking past improving transportation strictly for our planet. But is looking towards a more lofty goal – Mars. SpaceX is currently developing space shuttles with the capability to launch and land on Mars to start, and establish a Mars colony. Mars-one, a not-for-profit organization that is sponsored by SpaceX is planning to launch four individuals on a one-way ticket to Mars by 2023 and send a new set of four astronauts every two years to help establish a permanent human settlement on Mars. Just as the first transatlantic flight from Frankfurt-am-Main to Lakehurst opened the floodgates to globalization and lead to a more connected society, a new colony on Mars would do the same. However instead of this phenomena taking place in the realm of globalization, it ends it, and opens humanity to a new realm of possibilities of uni-planetization. Just as the decisions of nation states affects the global intricacies of surrounding states, but also every country on earth. However, with uni-planetization our choices and decision are no longer confined to the casual reaction of just our planet, but also every celestial object that humans inhabit.  By the year 2030 there will be an end to an ideology and the beginning of a new ideal that will have a profound affect on the way we conduct business, commerce, and the way our species views itself in the universe.