We are all time
travels on a journey into the future. However, we are not accompanied by a
tourist guide, or an all-seeing oracle that can direct us in our venture into
the future, instead we are explores venturing out into an unknown landscape. In
some of the futuristic landscapes, some see towers that scrape the heavens with
technologies that boarder on the realm of the impossible, while others foresee
ecological catastrophes, coming ice ages, or a collision with an celestial
object. Although futuring might
involve projecting the future of humanity, and which way our humanities future
a whole might hold; Futuring can also have a personal benefit to our careers
and to our private lives. For instance, when to change careers, the decision move
to a new neighborhood before prices rise or drop, or creating a desired outcome
for our families. In many ways we are similar to the original explores that
traveled to new lands. In part one
of this four part series we will hope to understand, how we relate to the
original explores. Part 2, the swiftness of technological change and exponential growthand the laws that drive it. Part 3, the six super trends that are shaping the future,understanding change, systems, chance, and chaos, which leads us to the opening
of Part 4 with methods to futurology.
The
Explorers
Reflecting back
on the accounts of the great expeditions throughout history. We start to notice
that these great explores were very conscientious about packing for their
journeys. Because their success depending on having the correct equipment,
supplies, and the proper crew with the correct training and skill set, which
leads us to the first lesson of the great explorers Prepare for what you will face in the future. The lack of
preparation welcomes catastrophe, which might seem obvious, yet many people
today do not see the point in thinking about the future, and regard it as a ‘we
will worry about it when we get there’ mentality. Any of the great explores
would consider us reckless fools, and that any number of problems are silently
waiting to strike.
The second
lesson is derived from the first Anticipate
future needs. By taking the time to identity the likely future they were to
encounter, they had a statistical model to work with to understand what they
would need to bring on their journey. However, they also knew that any failed
anticipation of the future could lead to death or being stranded on an
uncharted territory. Thus, they tried to envision
alternative futures before leaving port to better understand the needs of the
journey. “Today, as explores of the future, we also need to anticipate what we
may face so that we can be ready for it.”
But how could we
possibly predict our future needs when we are venturing out into the unknown?
The region of the “unknown” was not absolutely unknown: By using information about surrounding
regions, vague rumors and reports, educated guesses, and speculation about the
geographic of the landscape. They could compile maps that might be relevant,
however crude it might be.
Which leads us
into our third lesson: Use poor information
when necessary. Naturally, we want to use the best information available, but
when it comes to decision we must not allow are selves to disregard information,
because it may not be adequately detailed or may contain errors. Our great
explorers sailed around the world using maps that were partially complete or
containing inaccurate data.
“Many people
today think that we know nothing about the future. That are 99.999+ + percent
right in the literal sense, but quite wrong in the practical sense: Almost
everything we don’t know about the future has little practical important to use
whereas the little that we can know is extremely important, because it can help
us make better decisions. Our business
with the future is to improve it, not to predict it – at least not
infallibly” We cannot be perfectionist when it comes to the future, we should
be willing to use faulty data when necessary. Because when we’re lost in the
fog of the future, any map could be a godsend.
By using
imperfect data is allow us to act on futures before they become realties and
much more difficult to shift and manipulate than when they were in their fluid
futuristic form.
Leaving us with
our fourth lesson from the great explores: Expect
the unexpected. Many people assume that an unexpected event is bad thing,
however, it could possibly lead to a great opportunity. But we still want to be
able to deal with it in an effective manner. For instance, many young people
prepare for careers, but not for career disaster or an unusual opportunity
outside their expected career path.
The fifth and
lesson of the great explorers is: Thing
long term as well as short term. Columbus spent years traveling from city
to city trying to get his expedition across the Atlantic funded. Facing one
rejection after another before Queen Isabella finally provided the funds to
make his dream of an expedition across the Atlantic a reality. Foresight empowers us for future
achievement, and foresight that expends well into the future can be especially
empowering. By giving us the vision necessary to work towards a goal for years
at a time before we see that goal actually manifesting itself into reality. “Almost
anything can be done in twenty years” – Earl C. Joseph
The sixth lesson
of the great explorers: Dream productively.
Thinking in the long term is much more easier if you have a dream to sustain
you; in fact, it might be impossible to slog throughout the years without any
fruit for your labor. The great explorers were doers and a not idle daydreamer, what mattered most to them was the
accomplishment of their vision, and fantasizing was a means to an end. By
exploring future possibilities in their imaginations they were able to dream
their ships across the oceans and around the world. With the creation of future
possibilities they could anticipate their future needs realistically and
prepare reasonably for what lay ahead. By fantasizing about future events, they
could explore alternative goals and strategies.
The seventh and
final lesson of the great explorers: Learn
from your predecessors. By learning from pervious explorers they current
day explorers were able to better gear their expeditions by learning for the
successes, errors, and failures of past expeditions. Because, it would be
possible for us to succeed if we had to make every mistake for ourselves,
instead of building on last successes and failures of our predecessors.
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The seven
lessons of the great explorers:
·
Prepare
for what you will face in the future.
·
Anticipate
future needs.
·
Use
poor information when necessary.
·
Expect
the unexpected.
·
Think
long term as well as short term.
·
Dream
productively.
·
Learn
from your predecessor
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Please
note: All content from Part 1, 3, and 4 was summarized from the book Futuring:The Exploration of the future by Edward Cornish
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