Futuring Methods
In
this section we will look at the broad strokes of the methods behind futuring in
eleven different methods.
·
Scanning
– Typically scanning is based on systematic survey of news articles, reviewing
academic journals for new developments in technology and innovations. Not only
is having an understanding of topographic of the developments of business and
technology, but also politics. Trend Monitoring
·
Trend
Analysis – Determine the rate of change of change in trends to identify its
nature, cause, speed of development, and potential impact. Careful analysis
maybe be needed though statistical models or with human imagination to give you
a theoretical idea about the future.
·
Tend
Monitoring – Watching reports regularly is key to creating informed decisions
about the future.
·
Trend
Projection – After trends have been analyzed in a numerical way, trends then
can be plotted on in a graphing machine to show change in the past and
theoretical changes in the future.
·
Scenarios
– The future development of trends, using different strategies such as Murphy’s
law to describe an outline for the future.
·
Polling
– Collecting people’s opinion through surveys, polls, or by face-to-face
interactions. The Delphi polling method is one of the most popular polling
methods among futurist.
·
Brainstorming
– Generating new ideas about the future to help give you an idea map about the
future. The same type of rough data that the early explorers would have used to
map their journey to a new land.
·
Modeling
– Gives us the ability to visualize data and project trends and project
forecast into the future.
·
Gaming
– The simulation of real-world situations by the means of humans playing
different roles and observing the by-product of these scenario-building games.
·
Historical
Analysis – The use of historical events to understand how to proceed into the
future.
·
Vision
– Using the systematic creation of visions of a desirable future or companies,
organization, or for individuals. Normally, this process starts with a
historical analysis.
By interlacing these topics together and using the perspective of the
supertrends and superforces and we reviewed in the pervious section, along with
what we’ve learned from the great explorers, we can start to develop a
futuristic model of the future, through the use of forecast and the creation of
scenarios. Please note: All content from Part 1, 3, and 4 was summarized from the book Futuring:The Exploration of the future by Edward Cornish
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